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TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU SEP 13 2001
 
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB ALONG WITH A
2.5 FROM AIR FORCE GLOBAL...SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INITIAL
INTENSITY AT 45 KT. BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION EARLIER THIS MORNING IS
ALREADY WEAKENING WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO WARM.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT AND WITH
COLDER WATERS AHEAD...NO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST.
SHIPS...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING INTENSIFICATION...IS
NOW INDICATING VERY LITTLE INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH
A STEADY WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS
SHIPS BEYOND THE FIRST 12 HOURS IN THE DECAY OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME.  A MIDDLE LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO WESTWARD IS KEEPING IVO
ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD HEADING.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS
GUNS THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS.

THE WIND RADIUS IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY INWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT BASED ON A SHIP OBSERVATION IN THE AREA THAT HAD WINDS
BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. SIMILARLY...WIND RADII IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY BASED ON PERSISTENT
BOUY/SHIP DATA INDICATING SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. THIS ALSO AGREES WITH A PARTIAL QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0000
UTC LAST NIGHT THAT CAUGHT THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM.
 
FORECASTER AVILA/HOLWEG
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/1500Z 23.4N 113.0W    45 KTS
12HR VT     14/0000Z 24.4N 114.5W    45 KTS
24HR VT     14/1200Z 25.3N 115.8W    45 KTS
36HR VT     15/0000Z 26.0N 117.1W    40 KTS
48HR VT     15/1200Z 26.6N 118.5W    35 KTS
72HR VT     16/1200Z 27.5N 121.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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