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TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE SEP 11 2001
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/14.  THE AVIATION MODEL MAINTAINS 
A RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST 
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  ONLY THE GFDL 
AND GFNL MODELS BRING THE STORM FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO MOVE ACROSS BAJA 
CALIFORNIA.  THE OTHERS MOVE IVO AWAY FROM LAND.  THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS AND BRINGS THE CENTER TO ABOUT 
120 N MI OF SOUTHERN BAJA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THIS REQUIRES A 
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN BAJA.

THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS.  THERE HAS BEEN AN 
INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IT IS NOT 
YET WELL ORGANIZED.  THE NEARBY VERTICAL SHEAR STARTS OFF NEAR 20 
KNOTS BUT WEAKENS SO THAT THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR 
STRENGTHENING.  THE SHIPS MODEL BACKS OFF A LITTLE ON STRENGTHENING 
IVO AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BRINGING THE WIND TO 60 
KNOTS IN 72 HOURS.  

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/0300Z 18.3N 107.3W    35 KTS
12HR VT     12/1200Z 19.2N 109.0W    40 KTS
24HR VT     13/0000Z 20.8N 111.3W    45 KTS
36HR VT     13/1200Z 22.5N 113.5W    55 KTS
48HR VT     14/0000Z 23.5N 115.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     15/0000Z 25.5N 118.5W    60 KTS
 
 
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