HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE SEP 11 2001
 
FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IVO HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY
IN ORGANIZATION.  THERE IS SOME SHEAR FROM THE NORTHEAST WHICH IS
KEEPING THE CENTER EAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION BUT IS FORECAST TO
RELAX.  IN FACT...THERE IS DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTER AS WE SPEAK.  A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AS THE
CIRCULATION MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM LAND.

ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AT THIS 
TIME...THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11. A 
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A TROUGH 
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL PROVIDE A WEST-NORTHWEST STEERING 
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY A SMALL SHIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE 
TRACK..WOULD REQUIRE WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR EXTREME OF SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA.
 
UNTIL THE STORM STARTS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST IN A DAY OR
SO...IVO WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO GENERATE HEAVY RAINS IN COASTAL 
REGIONS WITH FLASH FLOODING IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/1500Z 17.1N 104.8W    35 KTS
12HR VT     12/0000Z 17.6N 106.4W    40 KTS
24HR VT     12/1200Z 18.5N 109.0W    45 KTS
36HR VT     13/0000Z 19.5N 111.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     13/1200Z 21.0N 113.5W    65 KTS
72HR VT     14/1200Z 23.5N 117.5W    65 KTS
 
 
NNNN