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TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT SEP 08 2001
 
HENRIETTE IS VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE NOW 35 KT.  THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A QUIKSCAT PASS THAT
INDICATED 35 KT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  THE WINDS ARE
REDUCED TO 35 KT.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING VERY RAPIDLY NOW AND SHOULD
BEGIN DISSIPATING IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.  A REMNANT LOW IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST FOR AT LEAST TWO TO THREE DAYS AFTER THE DISSIPATING STAGE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 255/20.  HENRIETTES MOTION CONTINUES TO BE
STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH.  BECAUSE OF THE
FAST FORWARD SPEED THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED WELL TO THE WEST OF GILS
LONGITUDE AND IS NOW LOCATED ABOUT 300 NM NORTHWEST OF GIL.  IF THIS
MOTION AND SPEED CONTINUE THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM
GIL.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
BUT FASTER IN THE EARLY FORECAST PERIODS.  REGARDLESS...THE SYSTEM
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW.

FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/0900Z 22.3N 133.2W    35 KTS
12HR VT     08/1800Z 21.3N 136.3W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     09/0600Z 20.5N 140.1W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     09/1800Z 19.4N 143.1W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     10/0600Z 18.7N 145.9W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     11/0600Z 18.0N 149.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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