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TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI SEP 07 2001
 
DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 35 TO 45 KT.  THE WINDS ARE REDUCED TO 40 KT.  WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 22 TO 23C AND HENRIETTE IS NOT LIKELY TO HAVE
THE CONVECTION REQUIRED OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR VERY LONG.  A
REMNANT LOW IS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST TWO TO THREE
DAYS AFTER THE DISSIPATING STAGE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/18.  HENRIETTES MOTION APPEARS TO BE
STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH.  IF THIS MOTION
AND SPEED CONTINUE THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM GIL WHICH
IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 NM TO THE SOUTH...INSTEAD OF MOVING AROUND GIL 
AND BEING ABSORBED BY GILS CIRCULATION AS SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL 
MODELS SUGGEST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS 
ADVISORY BUT FASTER IN THE EARLY FORECAST PERIODS.  REGARDLESS...THE 
SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW.

FORECASTER JARVINEN/MOLLEDA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/0300Z 22.9N 130.7W    40 KTS
12HR VT     08/1200Z 22.9N 133.6W    35 KTS
24HR VT     09/0000Z 22.5N 137.0W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     09/1200Z 21.8N 140.0W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     10/0000Z 20.8N 142.5W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     11/0000Z 19.5N 145.9W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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