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TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI SEP 07 2001
 
DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
ARE 45 TO 55 KT.  THE WINDS ARE HELD AT 45 KT BASED ON SOME QUIKSCAT 
VECTORS...ALTHOUGH THEY WERE RIGHT AT THE EDGE OF A SWATH AND I AM 
NOT CERTAIN THE WINDS ARE REALLY THIS HIGH.  WATER TEMPERATURES ARE 
NEAR 22 TO 23C AND HENRIETTE IS NOT LIKELY TO HAVE THE CONVECTION 
REQUIRED OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR VERY LONG.  A REMNANT LOW IS 
LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST TWO TO THREE DAYS...HOWEVER.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/17.  HENRIETTE IS MAKING A GENTLE TURN 
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF HURRICANE GIL...WHICH IS ABOUT 400 NM TO ITS 
SOUTH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS 
ADVISORY AND SIMILAR TO THE SHALLOW BAM.  OF NOTE ARE THE AVN AND 
GFDL MODELS...WHICH TURN HENRIETTE SOUTHWESTWARD MUCH MORE SHARPLY 
THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/2100Z 22.6N 128.6W    45 KTS
12HR VT     08/0600Z 22.6N 131.2W    40 KTS
24HR VT     08/1800Z 22.5N 134.7W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     09/0600Z 22.0N 138.0W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     09/1800Z 21.0N 141.0W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     10/1800Z 19.5N 145.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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