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TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI SEP 07 2001
 
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM OVER HENRIETTE.  DVORAK 
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 KT...BUT DATA T NUMBERS ARE 35 TO 
45 KT.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0148Z SHOWED THAT THE STRONG WINDS 
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER WERE DECREASING.  GIVEN THE STABLE BOUNDARY 
LAYER...THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  WITH 
THE CYCLONE OVER 23C WATER...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.  
WITHIN 24 HOURS THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH CONVECTION TO QUALIFY THE 
SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/17.  HENRIETTE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY 
ACCELERATING BETWEEN HURRICANE GIL AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE 
NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR IN TRACK BUT FASTER THAN 
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND SHOWS A GENTLE TURN TO THE LEFT AROUND 
THE CIRCULATION OF GIL.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/1500Z 22.4N 127.0W    45 KTS
12HR VT     08/0000Z 23.2N 129.7W    40 KTS
24HR VT     08/1200Z 23.8N 133.4W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     09/0000Z 23.8N 137.0W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     09/1200Z 23.5N 140.0W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     10/1200Z 22.5N 145.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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