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TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI SEP 07 2001
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM OVER HENRIETTE. DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 KT...BUT DATA T NUMBERS ARE 35 TO
45 KT. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0148Z SHOWED THAT THE STRONG WINDS
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER WERE DECREASING. GIVEN THE STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER...THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. WITH
THE CYCLONE OVER 23C WATER...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.
WITHIN 24 HOURS THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH CONVECTION TO QUALIFY THE
SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/17. HENRIETTE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATING BETWEEN HURRICANE GIL AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR IN TRACK BUT FASTER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND SHOWS A GENTLE TURN TO THE LEFT AROUND
THE CIRCULATION OF GIL.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/1500Z 22.4N 127.0W 45 KTS
12HR VT 08/0000Z 23.2N 129.7W 40 KTS
24HR VT 08/1200Z 23.8N 133.4W 30 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 09/0000Z 23.8N 137.0W 25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 09/1200Z 23.5N 140.0W 25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 10/1200Z 22.5N 145.0W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
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