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TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI SEP 07 2001

THERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLE DECREASE IN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
HENRIETTE DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS...BOTH NEAR THE CENTER AND
IN THE EXTENSIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  IT IS LIKELY
THAT THE STORM IS FEELING THE EFFECTS OF THE 24C SEAS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THAT IT IS PASSING OVER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 55 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL AS
WELL.  HOWEVER...THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS GIVEN HOW MUCH
THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/15.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF HENRIETTE...WHILE HURRICANE
GIL IS 430 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST.  HENRIETTE SHOULD CONTINUE ON A
QUICK WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK BETWEEN GIL AND THE RIDGE...AND
MOST NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

HENRIETTE HAS AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW PATTERN...AND IF IT WERE OVER
WARMER WATER IT WOULD LIKELY BE STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...THE
FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE OVER 22C WATER IN 24-36 HR...SO
STEADY WEAKENING IS NOW THE FORECAST.  HENRIETTE SHOULD BE
DISSIPATING BY 48 HR...AND SHOULD BE TOTALLY GONE BY 72 HR AS ANY
REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY BE DISRUPTED OR PERHAPS ABSORBED BY
GIL.
 

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/0900Z 21.4N 125.0W    55 KTS
12HR VT     07/1800Z 22.4N 127.1W    50 KTS
24HR VT     08/0600Z 23.2N 130.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     08/1800Z 23.5N 133.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     09/0600Z 23.5N 136.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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