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TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU SEP 06 2001

CONVECTIVE BANDING NEAR THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER DEFINED DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A BURST OF STRONG
CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND TO THE NORTH AND THEN WEST OF THE CENTER.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...
AND 45 KT FROM AFWA.  ON THE BASIS OF THE SOMEWHAT IMPROVED
SATELLITE SIGNATURE...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 55 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 300/15.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF HENRIETTE...WHILE HURRICANE GIL IS
460 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST.  HENRIETTE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON A
QUICK WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK BETWEEN GIL AND THE RIDGE...AND
MOST NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT NUDGED JUST A LITTLE TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  GIVEN THAT THE DISTANCE BETWEEN
HENRIETTE AND GIL IS NOW DECREASING RATHER SLOWLY...THE TWO SYSTEMS
ARE UNLIKELY TO MERGE AS INDICATED BY THE AVN AND UKMET.

HENRIETTE IS LIKELY PEAKING AS IT IS ALREADY MOVING INTO SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF LESS THAN 25C.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH THE PERIOD UNTIL THE CYCLONE IS DISSIPATING
AT 72 HR.

THE INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN MODIFIED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND THE MOTION.

FORECASTER BEVEN/AGUIRRE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/0300Z 20.9N 123.6W    55 KTS
12HR VT     07/1200Z 21.9N 125.7W    55 KTS
24HR VT     08/0000Z 22.9N 128.6W    45 KTS
36HR VT     08/1200Z 23.5N 131.7W    40 KTS
48HR VT     09/0000Z 23.5N 135.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     10/0000Z 23.5N 140.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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