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TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU SEP 06 2001
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED GOOD BANDING FEATURES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE TOPS WHICH
WARMED THIS MORNING HAVE NOW COOLED AS A NEW BAND OF CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
REMAINED UNCHANGED FROM ALL AGENCIES AND RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 KT.
A 1319Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED A FEW UNCONTAMINATED 45 TO 50 KT
WINDS WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS...THE CURRENT
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 50 KT.
WITH BETTER CENTER FIXES IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...HENRIETTE IS MOVING
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...NOW 295/16 KT.
THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH
36 HOURS. AFTER THAT THE TRACK WAS BENT BACK TO THE WEST...AS
HENRIETTE WEAKENS AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND
HURRICANE GIL.
SINCE HENRIETTE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS...IT IS
MOST LIKELY AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN IN
12 TO 24 HOURS. AS HENRIETTE CONTINUES INTO COLDER WATERS...STEADY
WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS.
WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON
RECENT QUIKSCAT DATA.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/2100Z 20.0N 122.3W 50 KTS
12HR VT 07/0600Z 21.1N 124.6W 50 KTS
24HR VT 07/1800Z 22.3N 128.0W 45 KTS
36HR VT 08/0600Z 23.0N 131.0W 40 KTS
48HR VT 08/1800Z 23.0N 134.0W 30 KTS
72HR VT 09/1800Z 23.0N 139.0W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING
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