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TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED SEP 05 2001
 
A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER TD NINE-E SHOWED A STRONG SURGE OF 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEPRESSION...AND IS THE BASIS 
FOR UPGRADING THE CYCLONE TO A TROPICAL STORM.  DVORAK INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES ARE A LITTLE LOWER...AND IN FACT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 
PROBABLY CLOSE TO THE DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS OF 25 TO 30 KT.  
HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED CLOSE TO THE CENTER AND 
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE WIND FIELD TO TIGHTEN UP.  THE SHIPS 
INTENSITY MODEL FORECASTS STRENGTHENING TO 57 KT...BUT THE AVN AND 
GFDL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM.  EASTERLY SHEAR IS STILL 
EVIDENT OVER THE CYCLONE.  THE FORECAST THINKING IS SIMILAR TO THE 
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IN THAT COOLER WATERS AND THE HORIZONTAL 
SHEARING ENVIRONMENT OF GIL WILL DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM.

THE INTITIAL MOTION IS 270/14...ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...AND THERE 
IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.  IN ANOTHER 12 TO 
24 HOURS HENRIETTE MAY BEGIN TO TURN A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AS IT 
INTERACTS WITH THE CIRCULATION OF GIL.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/2100Z 17.7N 116.5W    40 KTS
12HR VT     06/0600Z 17.8N 118.8W    40 KTS
24HR VT     06/1800Z 18.8N 121.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     07/0600Z 20.0N 124.2W    35 KTS
48HR VT     07/1800Z 21.0N 127.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     08/1800Z 22.5N 132.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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