ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED SEP 05 2001
A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER TD NINE-E SHOWED A STRONG SURGE OF
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEPRESSION...AND IS THE BASIS
FOR UPGRADING THE CYCLONE TO A TROPICAL STORM. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE A LITTLE LOWER...AND IN FACT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE
PROBABLY CLOSE TO THE DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS OF 25 TO 30 KT.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED CLOSE TO THE CENTER AND
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE WIND FIELD TO TIGHTEN UP. THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL FORECASTS STRENGTHENING TO 57 KT...BUT THE AVN AND
GFDL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM. EASTERLY SHEAR IS STILL
EVIDENT OVER THE CYCLONE. THE FORECAST THINKING IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IN THAT COOLER WATERS AND THE HORIZONTAL
SHEARING ENVIRONMENT OF GIL WILL DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM.
THE INTITIAL MOTION IS 270/14...ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...AND THERE
IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. IN ANOTHER 12 TO
24 HOURS HENRIETTE MAY BEGIN TO TURN A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE CIRCULATION OF GIL.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/2100Z 17.7N 116.5W 40 KTS
12HR VT 06/0600Z 17.8N 118.8W 40 KTS
24HR VT 06/1800Z 18.8N 121.5W 40 KTS
36HR VT 07/0600Z 20.0N 124.2W 35 KTS
48HR VT 07/1800Z 21.0N 127.0W 30 KTS
72HR VT 08/1800Z 22.5N 132.0W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING
NNNN
Problems?