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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED SEP 05 2001
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE TO PINPOINT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SINCE 
A MICROWAVE OVERPASS AROUND 04Z.  THAT POSITION WAS PRETTY MUCH ON 
TRACK AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 275/13.  CONTINUITY 
PLACES THE DEPRESSION CENTER NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP 
CONVECTION...WELL EAST OF THE ROTATION IN THE CLOUD TOPS.  SATELLITE 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT GIVEN THAT 
ALL THE CONVECTION IS SOUTHWEST OF A SYSTEM MOVING SMARTLY TO THE 
WEST...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE AT THE 
SURFACE.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING CLOSER TO TROPICAL STORM GIL...WHICH IS 
STATIONARY ABOUT 550 NM TO ITS WEST-SOUTHWEST.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS 
HIGHLY DIVERGENT AS THE NATURE OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO 
CYCLONES IS NOT CLEAR.  GIL IS THE SMALLER OF THE TWO SYSTEMS BUT IS 
THE BETTER ORGANIZED.  WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE 
DEPRESSION...THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL 
CONTINUE AT A FAIRLY RAPID RATE AND SWING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF 
GIL.  NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE DEPRESSION COULD 
COME WITHIN 200-300 NM OF GIL...AND THE COMBINATION OF COOLER WATER 
AND THE CIRCULATION OF GIL IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DISSIPATION.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/1500Z 18.1N 114.9W    30 KTS
12HR VT     06/0000Z 18.2N 117.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     06/1200Z 19.0N 119.6W    35 KTS
36HR VT     07/0000Z 19.9N 122.1W    35 KTS
48HR VT     07/1200Z 21.0N 125.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     08/1200Z 22.5N 130.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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