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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED SEP 05 2001
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE TO PINPOINT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SINCE
A MICROWAVE OVERPASS AROUND 04Z. THAT POSITION WAS PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 275/13. CONTINUITY
PLACES THE DEPRESSION CENTER NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION...WELL EAST OF THE ROTATION IN THE CLOUD TOPS. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT GIVEN THAT
ALL THE CONVECTION IS SOUTHWEST OF A SYSTEM MOVING SMARTLY TO THE
WEST...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE AT THE
SURFACE.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING CLOSER TO TROPICAL STORM GIL...WHICH IS
STATIONARY ABOUT 550 NM TO ITS WEST-SOUTHWEST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HIGHLY DIVERGENT AS THE NATURE OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO
CYCLONES IS NOT CLEAR. GIL IS THE SMALLER OF THE TWO SYSTEMS BUT IS
THE BETTER ORGANIZED. WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION...THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL
CONTINUE AT A FAIRLY RAPID RATE AND SWING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
GIL. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE DEPRESSION COULD
COME WITHIN 200-300 NM OF GIL...AND THE COMBINATION OF COOLER WATER
AND THE CIRCULATION OF GIL IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DISSIPATION.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/1500Z 18.1N 114.9W 30 KTS
12HR VT 06/0000Z 18.2N 117.0W 30 KTS
24HR VT 06/1200Z 19.0N 119.6W 35 KTS
36HR VT 07/0000Z 19.9N 122.1W 35 KTS
48HR VT 07/1200Z 21.0N 125.0W 30 KTS
72HR VT 08/1200Z 22.5N 130.0W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING
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