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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED SEP 05 2001

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E APPEARS RATHER POORLY
DEFINED AND IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS MORNING.  IT SEEMS TO BE 
NEAR OR JUST TO THE EAST OF A PERSISTENT STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND 25
KT FROM SAB.  GIVEN THE RAGGED APPEARANCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WILL BE INCREASED ONLY TO 30 KT.
 
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/13.  THE CYCLONE
IS 680 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF TROPICAL STORM GIL...WHICH IS NEARLY
STATIONARY.  THE DECREASING DISTANCE AND RELATIVE MOTION INCREASE
THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE TWO SYSTEMS MAY INTERACT.  THE MOST
LIKELY AFFECT ON T.D. NINE-E WOULD BE A FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST BETWEEN GIL AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS FASTER THAN AND TO THE SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...REFLECTING THE INITIAL MOTION AND INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR INTERACTION.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A STRONG
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM COULD WELL CAUSE ERRATIC MOTION
FOR T.D. NINE-E.

THE SHEARED FROM THE EAST APPEARANCE IS A LITTLE STRANGE GIVEN THE
QUICK WESTWARD MOTION.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN QUITE PERSISTENT WEST
OF THE CENTER DESPITE THE SHEAR...SO THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR
STRENGTHENING.  THE SHIPS MODEL AGAIN TAKES THE SYSTEM TO 50 KT IN
36 HR...WHILE THE GFDL NOW DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE IN 18 HR.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SHIPS MODEL SINCE STRONG
CONVECTION CONTINUES.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A STRONG INTERACTION
WITH GIL COULD DISRUPT THE STRUCTURE OF T.D. NINE-E...AND SHOULD
THAT OCCUR IT MIGHT NOT STRENGTHEN AT ALL.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/0900Z 18.0N 113.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     05/1800Z 18.5N 115.5W    30 KTS
24HR VT     06/0600Z 19.1N 118.1W    35 KTS
36HR VT     06/1800Z 19.7N 120.7W    40 KTS
48HR VT     07/0600Z 20.3N 123.2W    35 KTS
72HR VT     08/0600Z 21.0N 128.0W    35 KTS
 
 
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