ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT TUE SEP 04 2001 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION...WITH A LOW-LEVEL CENTER WELL-REMOVED FROM THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. IN FACT...THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS APPEARS TO HAVE A SEPARATE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF ROTATION. WITH THE SHEAR NOT LIKELY TO ABATE SOON...THIS DEPRESSION COULD HAVE A RATHER SHORT LIFE CYCLE. NEITHER THE AVN NOR NOGAPS INDICATE ANY DEVELOPMENT... BUT RATHER ABSORB THE DEPRESSION INTO ANOTHER VORTEX THAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO EXIST. THE GFDL ALSO DISSIPATES THE DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/13. THERE REMAINS GREAT SCATTER IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF VORTICES...REAL AND IMAGINED...IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE DEPRESSION...THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IF THE CENTER REMAINS DETACHED FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION...AS IT IS NOW...IT SHOULD FOLLOW THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW... GRADUALLY TURNING MORE TO THE WEST AND SLOWING. THIS IS THE OPTION FAVORED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. SHOULD THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHEN MORE THAN EXPECTED...THERE IS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THAT WOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM ON WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AT A SOMEWHAT FASTER SPEED. FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 18.0N 110.7W 25 KTS 12HR VT 05/0600Z 19.0N 112.4W 25 KTS 24HR VT 05/1800Z 19.5N 114.3W 25 KTS 36HR VT 06/0600Z 19.7N 115.9W 30 KTS 48HR VT 06/1800Z 20.0N 117.5W 35 KTS 72HR VT 07/1800Z 21.0N 120.5W 30 KTS NNNN