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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE SEP 04 2001
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY POORLY ORGANIZED
DEPRESSION...WITH A LOW-LEVEL CENTER WELL-REMOVED FROM THE BULK OF 
THE DEEP CONVECTION.  IN FACT...THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS APPEARS TO 
HAVE A SEPARATE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF ROTATION.  WITH THE SHEAR NOT 
LIKELY TO ABATE SOON...THIS DEPRESSION COULD HAVE A RATHER SHORT 
LIFE CYCLE.  NEITHER THE AVN NOR NOGAPS INDICATE ANY DEVELOPMENT... 
BUT RATHER ABSORB THE DEPRESSION INTO ANOTHER VORTEX THAT DOES NOT 
APPEAR TO EXIST.  THE GFDL ALSO DISSIPATES THE DEPRESSION.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/13.  THERE REMAINS GREAT SCATTER IN THE 
TRACK GUIDANCE.  GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF VORTICES...REAL AND 
IMAGINED...IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE DEPRESSION...THE TRACK FORECAST 
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  IF THE CENTER REMAINS DETACHED FROM THE MAIN 
CONVECTION...AS IT IS NOW...IT SHOULD FOLLOW THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW... 
GRADUALLY TURNING MORE TO THE WEST AND SLOWING.  THIS IS THE OPTION 
FAVORED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  SHOULD THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHEN 
MORE THAN EXPECTED...THERE IS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE 
CYCLONE THAT WOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM ON WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AT A 
SOMEWHAT FASTER SPEED.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/2100Z 18.0N 110.7W    25 KTS
12HR VT     05/0600Z 19.0N 112.4W    25 KTS
24HR VT     05/1800Z 19.5N 114.3W    25 KTS
36HR VT     06/0600Z 19.7N 115.9W    30 KTS
48HR VT     06/1800Z 20.0N 117.5W    35 KTS
72HR VT     07/1800Z 21.0N 120.5W    30 KTS
 
 
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