HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE SEP 04 2001
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE 
DISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION 
AND ENOUGH CONVECTION TO BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE CONVECTION 
IS POORLY ORGANIZED AND CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE.  A 
QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ARE PROBABLY NOT HIGHER 
THAN 25 KT.  

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AT 310/11.  THERE IS A VERY LARGE SPREAD TO 
THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFDL TAKING THE DEPRESSION SLOWLY TO 
THE NORTHWEST...WHILE MOST OF THE REMAINING GUIDANCE IS MUCH FASTER 
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THIS RAPID TRANSLATION APPEARS TO RESULT 
PARTLY FROM AN INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E...ABOUT 
750 NM TO ITS WEST.  THERE IS AN APPARENTLY SOLID MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO 
THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION AND SO THE GFDL SOLUTION IS HARD TO 
ACCEPT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS 
BUT IS CLOSER TO THE AVN.

WITH MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR...DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DEPRESSION IS 
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW.  WITH THE CYCLONE TO WEST ON A MORE RAPID 
DEVELOPMENT TRACK...ALMOST ANY INTERACTION WITH BIG BROTHER WOULD 
HINDER DEVELOPMENT.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/1500Z 17.3N 108.9W    25 KTS
12HR VT     05/0000Z 18.2N 110.3W    25 KTS
24HR VT     05/1200Z 19.0N 112.0W    30 KTS
36HR VT     06/0000Z 19.7N 113.8W    35 KTS
48HR VT     06/1200Z 20.5N 115.5W    40 KTS
72HR VT     07/1200Z 22.0N 119.0W    45 KTS
 
 
NNNN