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TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT SEP 08 2001
 
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTERS OF GIL AND THE REMNANTS OF HENRIETTE CONTINUE 
TO REVOLVE AROUND EACH OTHER.  LITTLE DEEP CONVECTIVE HAS BEEN 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TWO SYSTEM DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.  A QUIKSCAT 
PASS AT 1412Z SHOWS A FEW 40 KNOT WINDS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE 
CENTER OF GIL.  DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE 
FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS.  WE WILL CARRY THE CURRENT INTENSITY AT 40 
KNOTS...REDUCING IT 10 KNOTS FROM 6 HOURS PREVIOUSLY.  WITH SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 23C OR COOLER ALONG THE FORECAST 
TRACK...CONTINUED WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR.
 
ALTHOUGH MOVING NEAR 14 KNOTS CURRENTLY...THE BEST GUIDANCE 
FORECASTS THIS FORWARD MOTION TO DECREASE DURING THE FORECAST 
PERIOD WITH THE DIRECTION GRADUALLY CHANGING FROM WEST NORTHWEST TO 
WEST SOUTHWEST.  MODELS FORECASTING THIS TREND INCLUDE THE GFDI... 
UKMI AND CONSENSUS MODELS...GUNS AND GUNA.

THE WIND RADII FOR GIL WHICH IN THE LAST ADVISORY WERE ADJUSTED TO 
INCLUDE THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH HENRIETTE ARE BEING REDUCED 
AS GIL BECOMES THE DOMINATE, THOUGH WEAKENING SYSTEM.
 
FORECASTER GROSS

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/2100Z 22.3N 132.6W    40 KTS
12HR VT     09/0600Z 22.9N 134.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     09/1800Z 23.2N 135.8W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     10/0600Z 22.9N 137.1W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     10/1800Z 22.4N 138.3W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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