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HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT SEP 08 2001
 
SATELLITE DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF GIL IS LOCATED
NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION...INDICATING A
SHEARED SYSTEM.  ALSO...A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO SHOWED A SIMILAR
FEATURE.  HOWEVER..DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE STILL AT 65 KT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 65 KT.  STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD 
CONTINUE AS GIL MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 345/10...A SLIGHT INCREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.  THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY
MOTION THROUGH 36-48 HOURS.  AGAIN...AS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...
AFTER 48 HOURS...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS THE
VARIOUS MODELS DIVERGE.  THE UKMET AND GFDL TURN THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
SOUTHWEST...WITH THE AVN SHOWING A MORE RAPID MOTION TO THE
SOUTHWEST.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS AND LBAR TURN GIL MORE TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHILE THE BAMM AND BAMD MOVE THE SYSTEM
RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD.  AS HENRIETTE WEAKENS TO THE NORTHWEST OF
GIL...ITS AFFECT ON THE TRACK OF GIL WILL DECREASE...AND MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
MOVE AWAY FROM EACH OTHER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHADES THE TRACK
CLOSER TO THE SLOWER UKMET AND GFDL SOLUTIONS BEYOND 48 HOURS...AND
IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK.

FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/0900Z 19.1N 130.3W    65 KTS
12HR VT     08/1800Z 20.5N 130.8W    55 KTS
24HR VT     09/0600Z 22.0N 132.0W    45 KTS
36HR VT     09/1800Z 22.5N 133.4W    40 KTS
48HR VT     10/0600Z 22.4N 134.9W    35 KTS
72HR VT     11/0600Z 21.8N 136.9W    30 KTS
 
 
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