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HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI SEP 07 2001
 
RECENT SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF GIL IS NOW NEAR 
THE EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...INDICATIVE OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. 
BASED ON THIS AND ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 TO 77 KT FROM 
THE THREE AGENCIES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE LOWERED TO 65 KT.    
STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AS GIL MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY 
COOLER WATERS. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 345/8.  A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY MOTION IS 
EXPECTED THROUGH 36-48 HOURS AS REFLECTED IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.  
AFTER 48 HOURS...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS THE 
VARIOUS MODELS DIVERGE.  THE UKMET AND GFDL TURN THE SYSTEM SLOWLY 
SOUTHWEST...WITH THE AVN SHOWING A MORE RAPID MOTION TO THE 
SOUTHWEST.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS AND LBAR TURN GIL MORE TO 
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHILE THE BAMM AND BAMD SHOOT THE SYSTEM 
RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD.  AS HENRIETTE WEAKENS TO THE NORTHWEST OF 
GIL...ITS AFFECT ON THE TRACK OF GIL WILL DECREASE...AND MODEL 
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND 
MOVE AWAY FROM EACH OTHER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHADES THE TRACK 
CLOSER TO THE SLOWER UKMET AND GFDL SOLUTIONS BEYOND 48 HOURS...AND 
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK.   
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN/MOLLEDA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/0300Z 17.7N 129.7W    65 KTS
12HR VT     08/1200Z 18.9N 129.9W    55 KTS
24HR VT     09/0000Z 20.5N 130.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     09/1200Z 21.3N 131.5W    40 KTS
48HR VT     10/0000Z 22.0N 132.5W    35 KTS
72HR VT     11/0000Z 22.0N 134.5W    30 KTS
 
 
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