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HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI SEP 07 2001
 
RECENT SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAVE SHOWN THAT SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO BE MADE TO THE LOCATION...MOTION...AND
FORECAST TRACK OF GIL FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  AS CORRECTLY
NOTED IN THE 09Z DISCUSSION...AND INCORRECTLY DISCOUNTED IN THE 15Z
DISCUSSION...GIL HAS TURNED IN RESPONSE TO THE CIRCULATION OF
HENRIETTE.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/6.  TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES 
GIL NORTH OR NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THEN BENDS THE 
TRACK BACK TO THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE 
RIGHT TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT STILL DOES 
NOT SHOW AS MUCH CURVATURE IN THE TRACK AS THE AVN...GFDL...OR 
UKMET.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST 
PERIOD GIL MAY FIND ITS PROGRESS BLOCKED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS 
NORTHWEST...AND SO THE FORWARD SPEED IS SLOWED ON DAY THREE.

GIVEN THE ADJUSTMENTS IN LOCATION...GIL WAS PROBABLY BETTER
ORGANIZED THAN I PREVIOUSLY GAVE IT CREDIT FOR THIS MORNING.
CONVECTION REMAINS VIGOROUS BUT HAS LITTLE SHAPE.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM THE THREE AGENCIES ARE A CONSENSUS 77 KT...AND SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED.  GIL IS EXPERIENCING NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR FROM HENRIETTE.  WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK ADJUSTMENT...
GIL WILL GET INTO COOLER WATERS SOONER...AND SO THE WEAKENING TREND
IS MORE RAPID WITH THIS ADVISORY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/2100Z 16.8N 129.5W    75 KTS
12HR VT     08/0600Z 17.6N 130.0W    75 KTS
24HR VT     08/1800Z 19.0N 130.3W    70 KTS
36HR VT     09/0600Z 20.5N 131.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     09/1800Z 21.5N 132.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     10/1800Z 22.0N 134.0W    40 KTS
 
 
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