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HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI SEP 07 2001
 
GIL DOES NOT LOOK AS HEALTHY AS IT DID LAST NIGHT.  THE CONVECTIVE 
PATTERN IS NOW RATHER ASYMMETRIC...WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY WEST OF THE 
CENTER.  HOWEVER...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD.  DVORAK 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 AND 90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB... 
RESPECTIVELY...AND THE TAFB ESTIMATE IS THE BASIS FOR THE OFFICIAL 
INTENSITY IN THIS ADVISORY. 

THE OUTFLOW PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK THAT HEALTHY EITHER...BEING 
AFFECTED BY NORTHEASTERLY OUTFLOW FROM HENRIETTE.  HOWEVER...WATER 
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO SO THE 
HURRICANE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD ITS OWN FOR A WHILE.  TOWARD THE 
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SSTS WILL DECREASE AND A WEAKENING 
TREND SHOULD COMMENCE.

WITH THE DEGENERATION OF THE EYE...IT IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO 
DETERMINE THE MOTION...WHICH IS OFFICIALLY ESTIMATED TO BE 310/6... 
BUT MAY IN FACT BE A LITTLE LEFT OF THAT.  I DO NOT CURRENTLY SEE 
THE NORTHWARD MOTION DISCUSSED IN THE LAST ADVISORY PACKAGE.  
PERHAPS VISIBLE IMAGERY IN A FEW HOURS WILL HELP.  REGARDLESS...MUCH 
OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE TAKES GIL SHARPLY NORTHWARD AROUND THE 
CIRCULATION OF HENRIETTE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW 
NEARLY AS MUCH INTERACTION AND FOLLOWS A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST 
TRACK ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. 

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/1500Z 15.9N 129.7W    75 KTS
12HR VT     08/0000Z 16.4N 130.6W    75 KTS
24HR VT     08/1200Z 17.1N 131.7W    75 KTS
36HR VT     09/0000Z 18.0N 132.9W    70 KTS
48HR VT     09/1200Z 19.0N 134.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     10/1200Z 20.0N 136.0W    55 KTS
 
 
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