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HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI SEP 07 2001

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GIL REMAINS HEALTHY...AND A RAGGED EYE
APPEARED FOR A COUPLE OF SATELLITE IMAGES AROUND 06Z.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BOTH 90 KT...BUT SINCE
THE EYE DID NOT PERSIST THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 85 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS SOMEWHAT OF A MYSTERY.  WHEN THE EYE
APPEARED...IT SUGGESTED A SHORT-TERM MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST AND A LONGER-TERM NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  SINCE IT
DISAPPEARED...THE MOTION LOOKS MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY.  THE INITIAL
MOTION FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE 310/5...WHICH IS A CONSIDERABLE
SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE..WITH HENRIETTE NOW ABOUT
430 NM NORTHEAST OF GIL AND LIKELY TO PASS NORTH OF IT DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HR.  THE MORE NORTHERLY POSITION AND INITIAL MOTION
BY THEMSELVES REQUIRE A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK...AND THUS
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED ABOUT 60 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF 
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  MATTERS ARE FURTHER COMPLICATED BY FORECAST
CHANGES IN THE AVN...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS...WHICH NOW SUGGEST
THAT GIL WILL TAKE A JOG TO THE NORTH AS HENRIETTE GOES BY.  THE
FORECAST TRACK MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED FURTHER IF THIS NORTHWARD
MOTION MATERIALIZES.
 
THE OUTFLOW OF GIL IS STILL SOMEWHAT DISRUPTED BY THAT OF
HENRIETTE...ALTHOUGH IT HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST SIX HR.  SINCE
CONVECTION REMAINS STRONG AND GIL IS STILL OVER WARM WATERS...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TODAY.
AFTER THAT...THE MORE NORTHERLY FORECAST TRACK BRINGS GIL TO COOLER
WATER A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ACCORDINGLY ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.  IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
THAT GIL COULD BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST IF THE SHEAR FROM THE
OUTFLOW OF HENRIETTE DECREASES BEFORE GIL REACHES COOLER WATER.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/0900Z 15.6N 128.9W    85 KTS
12HR VT     07/1800Z 16.1N 129.6W    90 KTS
24HR VT     08/0600Z 16.7N 130.6W    85 KTS
36HR VT     08/1800Z 17.5N 131.9W    80 KTS
48HR VT     09/0600Z 18.3N 133.2W    70 KTS
72HR VT     10/0600Z 19.5N 135.5W    60 KTS
 
 
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