ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI SEP 07 2001 CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GIL REMAINS HEALTHY...AND A RAGGED EYE APPEARED FOR A COUPLE OF SATELLITE IMAGES AROUND 06Z. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BOTH 90 KT...BUT SINCE THE EYE DID NOT PERSIST THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 85 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS SOMEWHAT OF A MYSTERY. WHEN THE EYE APPEARED...IT SUGGESTED A SHORT-TERM MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH- NORTHWEST AND A LONGER-TERM NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. SINCE IT DISAPPEARED...THE MOTION LOOKS MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE 310/5...WHICH IS A CONSIDERABLE SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE..WITH HENRIETTE NOW ABOUT 430 NM NORTHEAST OF GIL AND LIKELY TO PASS NORTH OF IT DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HR. THE MORE NORTHERLY POSITION AND INITIAL MOTION BY THEMSELVES REQUIRE A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK...AND THUS THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED ABOUT 60 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MATTERS ARE FURTHER COMPLICATED BY FORECAST CHANGES IN THE AVN...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS...WHICH NOW SUGGEST THAT GIL WILL TAKE A JOG TO THE NORTH AS HENRIETTE GOES BY. THE FORECAST TRACK MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED FURTHER IF THIS NORTHWARD MOTION MATERIALIZES. THE OUTFLOW OF GIL IS STILL SOMEWHAT DISRUPTED BY THAT OF HENRIETTE...ALTHOUGH IT HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST SIX HR. SINCE CONVECTION REMAINS STRONG AND GIL IS STILL OVER WARM WATERS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TODAY. AFTER THAT...THE MORE NORTHERLY FORECAST TRACK BRINGS GIL TO COOLER WATER A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ACCORDINGLY ADJUSTED DOWNWARD. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT GIL COULD BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST IF THE SHEAR FROM THE OUTFLOW OF HENRIETTE DECREASES BEFORE GIL REACHES COOLER WATER. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0900Z 15.6N 128.9W 85 KTS 12HR VT 07/1800Z 16.1N 129.6W 90 KTS 24HR VT 08/0600Z 16.7N 130.6W 85 KTS 36HR VT 08/1800Z 17.5N 131.9W 80 KTS 48HR VT 09/0600Z 18.3N 133.2W 70 KTS 72HR VT 10/0600Z 19.5N 135.5W 60 KTS NNNN