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HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU SEP 06 2001

THE RAGGED EYE OBSERVED EARLIER HAS DISAPPEARED FOR THE MOMENT...
ALTHOUGH STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER OF GIL.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 90 AND 77 KT
FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 85 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/6.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
SCENARIO FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  GIL SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
SLOWLY WESTWARD AS HENRIETTE PASSES TO THE NORTH.  AFTER THAT
TIME...LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
HURRICANE SHOULD MOVE IT MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THERE IS STILL
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ERRATIC MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR AS
THE LARGER HENRIETTE PASSES TO THE NORTH.

THE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH GIL HAS BECOME LESS ANTICYCLONIC AND
MORE UNIFORM EASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY DUE TO THE
EFFECTS OF THE OUTFLOW FROM HENRIETTE.  THIS WILL LIKELY PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM.  LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...GIL SHOULD MOVE OVER GRADUALLY COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SOME SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IN THE FIRST 12 HR...FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY WEAKENING.
SHOULD THE OUTFLOW FROM HENRIETTE DECREASE WHILE GIL IS STILL OVER
WARM WATER...GIL COULD GET A BIT FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
 
THE 34 KT WIND RADII 12 FT SEAS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT HAVE BEEN
EXPANDED BASED ON A REPORT FROM SHIP H3AK.  IT REPORTED 40 KT WINDS
AND 22 FT SEAS AT 12.3N 126.5W...OR ABOUT 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN/AGUIRRE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/0300Z 15.1N 128.8W    85 KTS
12HR VT     07/1200Z 15.2N 129.7W    90 KTS
24HR VT     08/0000Z 15.6N 131.1W    90 KTS
36HR VT     08/1200Z 16.2N 132.3W    85 KTS
48HR VT     09/0000Z 17.0N 133.5W    75 KTS
72HR VT     10/0000Z 18.5N 136.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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