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HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU SEP 06 2001
 
A RAGGED EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN IRREGULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS 
BEEN OBSERVED INTERMITTENTLY ON VISIBLE IMAGES.  THE EYE WAS CLEARLY
SEEN ON SSMI AND TRIM SATELLITES A FEW HOURS AGO.  T-NUMBERS ARE 4.5
AND 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 85 KNOTS.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
WHILE LOCATED OVER WARM WATERS.  SOME WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN GIL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS.

GIL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR SOUTH OF DUE WEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS WHILE HENRIETTE IS PASSING TO THE NORTH DISRUPTING THE
WESTWARD STEERING FLOW.  THEREAFTER...A TRACK MORE TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED AS THE MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST BUILDS.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/2100Z 14.8N 128.4W    85 KTS
12HR VT     07/0600Z 14.9N 129.5W    90 KTS
24HR VT     07/1800Z 15.0N 131.0W    90 KTS
36HR VT     08/0600Z 15.5N 132.0W    85 KTS
48HR VT     08/1800Z 16.0N 133.0W    75 KTS
72HR VT     09/1800Z 17.5N 135.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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