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HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU SEP 06 2001
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT 75 KNOTS.
ALTHOUGH AN EYE IS NOT OBSERVED ON CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGES YET...AN
SSMI PASS EARLIER TODAY SHOWED A CIRCULAR EYE.  GIL HAS PLENTY OF
CONVECTION...GOOD OUTFLOW AND IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS.
HOWEVER...THE OUTFLOW FROM ITS NEIGHBOR HENRIETTE IS BEGINNING TO
APPROACH THE HURRICANE BUT IT DOES NOT SEEM STRONG ENOUGH TO IMPEDE
SOME STRENGTHENING.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...GIL SHOULD BE APPROACHING
COOLER WATERS AND WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS MORE COMPLICATED DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH
HENRIETTE WHICH IS MOVING AT A FASTER PACE TO THE NORTH OF GIL.  THE
HURRICANE...GIL...HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WEST OR SOUTH OF DUE
WEST...ABOUT 4 KNOTS.  A GENERAL WEST-TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE HENRIETTE IS MOVING TO ITS
NORTH...INTERRUPTING THE WESTWARD STEERING FLOW.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/1500Z 15.0N 127.6W    75 KTS
12HR VT     07/0000Z 15.0N 128.2W    80 KTS
24HR VT     07/1200Z 15.5N 129.5W    85 KTS
36HR VT     08/0000Z 16.0N 130.5W    85 KTS
48HR VT     08/1200Z 16.5N 131.5W    75 KTS
72HR VT     09/1200Z 17.5N 133.5W    65 KTS
 
 
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