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HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED SEP 05 2001
 
GIL HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A RATHER
TIGHTLY-WOUND INNER CORE FEATURE ON THE IMAGES.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE AT 4.0...I.E.  65 KNOTS.  THEREFORE THE SYSTEM
IS BEING UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE AT THIS TIME.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
IS GOOD TO THE SOUTH AND WEST BUT WEAK TO THE NORTHEAST.  CENTRAL
CONVECTION IS PRODUCING VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS TO AROUND -80C.  THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER...BASED ON THE CURRENT OBSERVED TREND...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST ALLOWS FOR SOME MORE STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
OR SO.

GIL HAS NOT MOVED MUCH SO FAR THIS EVENING.  INITAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS A WESTWARD DRIFT...270/3.  IT IS LIKELY THAT THE HURRICANES
PROGRESS IS BEING RETARDED BY ITS INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL STORM
HENRIETTE...WHICH IS CENTERED ROUGHLY 550 N MI TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
OF GIL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS VERY SLOW MOVEMENT FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...WITH A LITTLE FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
THEREAFTER.  THIS ASSUMES THAT...WITH TIME...GIL WILL GRADUALLY 
BECOME LESS INFLUENCED BY HENRIETTE...AND MORE SO BY THE SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

FORECASTER PASCH/AGUIRRE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0300Z 15.0N 126.1W    65 KTS
12HR VT     06/1200Z 15.0N 126.5W    70 KTS
24HR VT     07/0000Z 15.3N 127.2W    75 KTS
36HR VT     07/1200Z 15.7N 128.5W    70 KTS
48HR VT     08/0000Z 16.5N 130.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     09/0000Z 18.0N 133.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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