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TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED SEP 05 2001
 
GIL CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF 
TIGHT BANDING NEAR THE CORE THAT MAY PRESAGE THE FORMATION OF AN 
EYE.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA AND 65 
KT FROM SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT FOR THIS 
ADVISORY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIED 
FROM HENRIETTE IMPINGING ON THE CIRCULATION OF GIL...AND NONE OF THE 
INTENSITY GUIDANCE...SAVE THE GFDL...THINKS THAT MUCH MORE 
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR.  HOWEVER...IT WOULD TAKE VERY LITTLE TO MAKE 
GIL A HURRICANE.

AFTER REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY FOR 12 HOURS...GIL HAS RESUMED A 
WESTWARD TRACK.  THE AVN AND UKMET GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN 
BUILDING A RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK FOR THE NEXT 
THREE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS NOT AS FAST AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE.  I 
AM PRESUMING THAT THE CIRCULATION OF HENRIETTE WILL HAVE SOME 
RETARDING EFFECT THAT IS NOT WELL REPRESENTED IN THE MODELS.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/2100Z 15.2N 125.8W    60 KTS
12HR VT     06/0600Z 15.3N 126.3W    65 KTS
24HR VT     06/1800Z 15.5N 127.0W    65 KTS
36HR VT     07/0600Z 16.1N 128.1W    65 KTS
48HR VT     07/1800Z 17.0N 129.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     08/1800Z 18.5N 132.5W    60 KTS
 
 
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