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TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED SEP 05 2001
 
GIL HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  A MICROWAVE PASS 
NEAR 06Z SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS ABOUT 30 MILES TO THE 
EAST OF THE UPPER CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 55 
KT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION NINE-E IS IMPINGING ON GIL AND CONTRIBUTING TO THE 
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN 
PULLED BACK A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH THE EXPECTATION 
THAT THIS SHEARING WILL CONTINUE AS THE DEPRESSION APPROACHES GIL 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

GIL REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.  GIL IS SOUTH OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF 
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT GIL 
WILL RESUME A TRACK TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST SOON.  THE AVN 
LIFTS OUT THE LARGE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 30N/140W LATE IN THE 
FORECAST PERIOD AND EXTENDS THE RIDGE WESTWARD AS THE LOW PULLS OUT. 
THE MODEL DISSIPATES THE DEPRESSION AND SO IT REMAINS TOO WEAK TO 
HAVE MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF GIL.  THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW AS MUCH MOTION AS MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...AND 
ASSUMES THAT THERE WILL BE SOME RETARDATION OF THE STEERING FLOW 
FROM TD-NINE-E.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/1500Z 15.4N 124.7W    55 KTS
12HR VT     06/0000Z 15.4N 124.7W    55 KTS
24HR VT     06/1200Z 15.5N 125.0W    60 KTS
36HR VT     07/0000Z 15.8N 126.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     07/1200Z 16.1N 127.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     08/1200Z 17.0N 129.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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