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TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE SEP 04 2001
 
GIL IS SLOWLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 45...55...AND 45 KT...RESPECTIVELY.  
MICROWAVE PASSES...HOWEVER...STILL SHOW A SOMEWHAT SHEARED SYSTEM 
WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THE 
SYSTEM HAS GOOD BANDING IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND THE OUTFLOW 
PATTERN IS DECENT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/7.  GIL IS SOUTH OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF A 
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE.  HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS AHEAD OF 
GIL...AS DEPICTED BY THE CIMSS WATER VAPOR WINDS...ARE MUCH LESS 
WELL DEFINED.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS DIVERGENT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE 
MULTIPLE HINTS OF A SLOW ERRATIC MOTION FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 24 
HOURS.  ON THE ONE HAND...THE NOGAPS TAKES GIL TO THE WEST...WHILE 
THE UKMET KEEPS THE SYSTEM STATIONARY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 
THINKING IS THAT GIL WILL MOVE SLOWLY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE 
MID-LEVEL RIDGE.

CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.  
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR SHOULD BE REASONABLY 
LIGHT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL 
GUIDANCE. 

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/2100Z 15.5N 124.6W    45 KTS
12HR VT     05/0600Z 15.8N 125.7W    50 KTS
24HR VT     05/1800Z 16.0N 126.9W    55 KTS
36HR VT     06/0600Z 16.3N 128.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     06/1800Z 16.8N 129.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     07/1800Z 18.0N 131.0W    70 KTS
 
 
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