ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT TUE SEP 04 2001 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS HARD TO LOCATE ON IR IMAGERY...HOWEVER...IT APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION...WHICH IS SHOWING GOOD BANDING FEATURES. WITH THIS BANDING...THE DEPRESSION MAY IN FACT BE A TROPICAL STORM. THE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T2.0 FROM TAFB...2.5 FROM SAB...AND 1.5 FROM AFWA...NOT CONCLUSIVE BY ANY MEANS...BUT THESE MAY BE A LITTLE BEHIND THE CURVE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE CENTER POSITION...WE ARE GOING TO KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION FOR NOW. THE EASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT IS BASICALLY FAVORABLE AND STEADY DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/5. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...BUT A SIGNIFICANT BREAK LIES AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AVN AND GFDL MODELS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 15.6N 123.4W 30 KTS 12HR VT 05/0000Z 15.8N 124.1W 35 KTS 24HR VT 05/1200Z 16.0N 125.4W 40 KTS 36HR VT 06/0000Z 16.3N 126.7W 45 KTS 48HR VT 06/1200Z 16.5N 128.0W 55 KTS 72HR VT 07/1200Z 17.0N 130.5W 65 KTS NNNN