ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT TUE SEP 04 2001 ...CORRECTED AWIPS HEADER TO MIATCDEP3... THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 975 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KT FROM TAFB AND 25 KT FROM BOTH SAB AND AFWA. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/7. HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION RELATIVE TO THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. THE CENTER HAS BEEN PLACED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS DUE TO SOME WEAK EASTERLY SHEAR. T.D. EIGHT-E SHOULD TRACK IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST OR WESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD OWING TO THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE MODEL GUDIANCE AND IS A BLEND BETWEEN CLIPER AND THE BAM MODELS. AS A RESULT OF THE EASTERLY SHEAR ON THE CYCLONE...ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL WAS FOLLOWED THROUGH 36 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0900Z 15.7N 122.8W 30 KTS 12HR VT 04/1800Z 15.9N 123.9W 35 KTS 24HR VT 05/0600Z 16.3N 125.5W 40 KTS 36HR VT 05/1800Z 16.6N 127.0W 45 KTS 48HR VT 06/0600Z 16.9N 128.5W 55 KTS 72HR VT 07/0600Z 17.6N 131.5W 65 KTS NNNN