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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT SEP 01 2001
 
THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FLOSSIE HAS NOW BEEN ADVECTED 
NORTHEASTWARD LEAVING BEHIND A TOTALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KNOTS FROM TAFB 
AND SAB AND FLOSSIE IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  ALL OF 
THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS DISSIPATION IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE 
VERTICAL SHEAR IS GREATER THAN 20 KNOTS AND SSTS ARE BELOW 23C. 

THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED A LITTLE AND THE 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/03.  THE 06Z AVIATION...GFDL AND 
NOGAPS MODELS FORECAST A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION WHILE THE UKMET SHOWS 
NO MOTION.  THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONSISTS OF A HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST 
OF FLOSSIE AND A WEAK LOW OR TROUGH JUST NORTHWEST OF FLOSSIE AT LOW 
TO MID LEVELS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS 015/6 FOR 36 HOURS 
AFTER WHICH DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE 
PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT A LITTLE SLOWER.

SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A PLUME OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO INTO 
ARIZONA.  THE MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA AND NEW MEXICO IN THE NEXT 24-36 HR.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/1500Z 25.8N 118.9W    30 KTS
12HR VT     02/0000Z 26.7N 118.7W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     02/1200Z 27.9N 118.4W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     03/0000Z 29.1N 118.1W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     03/1200Z...DISSIPATING
  
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