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TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT SEP 01 2001

FLOSSIE IS STILL GENERATING A LITTLE CONVECTION OVER THE 
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  AN EARLIER QUICKSCAT OVERPASS SUGGESTED
THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS TROPICAL STORM WINDS...AND THIS SUPPORTS
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA.  FLOSSIE
WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM ONE LAST TIME.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 010/6.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
COMPLEX MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...AND A RIDGE/
ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF FLOSSIE.  NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE
RESPONDS TO THIS BY FORECASTING A GENERAL NORTHWARD OR NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION TOWARD NORTHERN BAJA OR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
ONE OUTLIER IS THE BAMS...WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM WEST OF DUE 
NORTH TO A POSITION SOUTHWEST OF SANTA BARBARA.  BASED ON THE 
INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE SIMILAR
TO BUT SHIFTED A LITTLE EASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  FLOSSIE
SHOULD WEAKEN TO A LOW BY 24 HR...AND THAT LOW WILL LIKELY MOVE
INLAND OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OR PERHAPS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
BEFORE DISSIPATING COMPLETELY.
 
EVEN IF THE CENTER OF FLOSSIE DOES NOT REACH THE COAST...THE
MOISTURE WILL.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM FLOSSIE ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA AND 
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO INTO ARIZONA.  THE MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEW MEXICO IN THE NEXT 24-36 HR.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/0900Z 25.8N 118.9W    35 KTS
12HR VT     01/1800Z 26.7N 118.7W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     02/0600Z 28.2N 118.3W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     02/1800Z 30.3N 117.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     03/0600Z...INLAND AND DISSIPATED
 
 
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