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TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2001
 
A MUCH WEAKENED FLOSSIE HAS MANAGED TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD
AND HAS COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORT WAVE LOCATED TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.  DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS FLOSSIE HAS
INCREASED HER FORWARD SPEED TO ABOUT 6 KTS...AN INCREASE OF 2 KTS
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 355/06.  WITH
THIS INITIAL MOTION...LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GRADUAL
ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN THE
LATER FORECAST PERIODS.
 
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE
FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 40
KNOTS.  THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO MOVE THE SYSTEM OVER
COLD WATER UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE BAJA.  THIS...PLUS AN INCREASE
IN VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST BY THE AVIATION MODEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/0300Z 25.1N 119.3W    40 KTS
12HR VT     01/1200Z 26.0N 119.3W    35 KTS
24HR VT     02/0000Z 27.3N 119.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     02/1200Z 28.9N 118.9W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     03/0000Z 32.2N 116.5W    15 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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