ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2001
LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
THE EYE IS NO LONGER OBSERVED AND THERE IS A RAPID DECREASE IN
CONVECTION. DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55 KT TO 65 KT...SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW 60 KT. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND
DISSIPATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER
COOLER WATER.
INITIAL MOTION IS 335/6. IN THE SHORT TERM...FLOSSIE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWEST AS GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BEYOND 24 HOURS...A MID AND UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST OF CALIFORNIA AND SOME OF THE NHC
GUIDANCE RESPOND TO THIS FEATURE BY TAKING THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE TOO WEAK AND SHALLOW TO
RESPOND TO THIS TROUGH...AND INSTEAD IT WILL BE STEERED WESTWARD BY
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/0300Z 23.6N 118.5W 60 KTS
12HR VT 31/1200Z 24.3N 118.9W 50 KTS
24HR VT 01/0000Z 24.6N 119.4W 40 KTS
36HR VT 01/1200Z 24.9N 120.0W 30 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 02/0000Z 25.0N 120.5W 20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 03/0000Z 25.0N 121.5W 20 KTS...DISSIPATING
NNNN
Problems?