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TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2001
 
LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. 
THE EYE IS NO LONGER OBSERVED AND THERE IS A RAPID DECREASE IN 
CONVECTION. DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55 KT TO 65 KT...SO THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW 60 KT.  STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND  
DISSIPATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER 
COOLER WATER. 

INITIAL MOTION IS 335/6.  IN THE SHORT TERM...FLOSSIE IS FORECAST TO 
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWEST AS GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAKNESS 
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  BEYOND 24 HOURS...A MID AND UPPER-LEVEL 
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST OF CALIFORNIA AND SOME OF THE NHC 
GUIDANCE RESPOND TO THIS FEATURE BY TAKING THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY 
NORTHWARD.  HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE TOO WEAK AND SHALLOW TO 
RESPOND TO THIS TROUGH...AND INSTEAD IT WILL BE STEERED WESTWARD BY 
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  

FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/0300Z 23.6N 118.5W    60 KTS
12HR VT     31/1200Z 24.3N 118.9W    50 KTS
24HR VT     01/0000Z 24.6N 119.4W    40 KTS
36HR VT     01/1200Z 24.9N 120.0W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     02/0000Z 25.0N 120.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     03/0000Z 25.0N 121.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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