HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2001

THE EYE OF FLOSSIE IS BECOMING ILL-DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
WHICH INDICATES WEAKENING.  LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB GIVE 65 KNOTS FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS STEADY WEAKENING.  LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE SHIPS MODEL
SUGGESTS THAT FLOSSIE MAY WEAKEN EVEN FASTER THAN SHOWN HERE.

MOTION IS NOW JUST SLIGHTLY WEST OF NORTH...350/5...  AS FLOSSIE
MOVES THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  BASED ON THE
MORE NORTHWARD OBSERVED MOTION...THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED
SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A
WEAKENING OF THE STEERING CURRENT...AND LITTLE MOTION AFTER 2-3
DAYS.  THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE LATEST U.K.
MET OFFICE MODEL RUN.

FORECASTER PASCH/RHOME
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/2100Z 23.2N 118.1W    65 KTS
12HR VT     31/0600Z 23.6N 118.3W    60 KTS
24HR VT     31/1800Z 24.2N 118.8W    50 KTS
36HR VT     01/0600Z 24.6N 119.5W    40 KTS
48HR VT     01/1800Z 25.0N 120.2W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     02/1800Z 25.5N 121.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
NNNN