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HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2001
THE EYE OF FLOSSIE IS BECOMING ILL-DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
WHICH INDICATES WEAKENING. LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB GIVE 65 KNOTS FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS STEADY WEAKENING. LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE SHIPS MODEL
SUGGESTS THAT FLOSSIE MAY WEAKEN EVEN FASTER THAN SHOWN HERE.
MOTION IS NOW JUST SLIGHTLY WEST OF NORTH...350/5... AS FLOSSIE
MOVES THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BASED ON THE
MORE NORTHWARD OBSERVED MOTION...THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED
SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A
WEAKENING OF THE STEERING CURRENT...AND LITTLE MOTION AFTER 2-3
DAYS. THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE LATEST U.K.
MET OFFICE MODEL RUN.
FORECASTER PASCH/RHOME
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/2100Z 23.2N 118.1W 65 KTS
12HR VT 31/0600Z 23.6N 118.3W 60 KTS
24HR VT 31/1800Z 24.2N 118.8W 50 KTS
36HR VT 01/0600Z 24.6N 119.5W 40 KTS
48HR VT 01/1800Z 25.0N 120.2W 30 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 02/1800Z 25.5N 121.5W 20 KTS...DISSIPATING
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