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HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED AUG 29 2001
 
FLOSSIE HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AND ACCELERATED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KT IS BASED ON 
A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT...T4.5... 
FROM TAFB AND 90 KT...T5.0...FROM BOTH SAB AND AFWA.  EVEN THOUGH 
FLOSSIE IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE... THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW 
REMAINS IMPRESSIVE AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/5...EVEN THOUGH THE MOTION OVER 
THE PAST 6 HOURS HAS BEEN 300/10.  I FEEL THAT THIS HAS BEEN A 
SHORT-LIVED MOTION THAT WAS PROBABLY INDUCED BY A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL 
LOW THAT MOVED SOUTH OF FLOSSIE.  THE LOW APPEARS TO HAVE NOW 
SHEARED OUT INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...AND FLOSSIE SHOULD BEGIN 
SLOWING DOWN SHORTLY.  THERE IS FAR LESS DIVERGENCE AMONG THE 
VARIOUS COMPUTER MODELS TODAY AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS 4 DAYS 
WORTH OF MODEL RUNS.  THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS TAKE FLOSSIE SLOWLY 
TO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE ONLY 
OUTLIERS ARE THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS...WHICH TAKE THE CYCLONE 
SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD.  THE AVN AND UKMET HAVE 
CONTINUED THEIR TREND OF TAKING FLOSSIE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH 36 TO 
48 HOURS AND THEN MORE WESTWARD AFTER THAT.  HOWEVER...THOSE MODELS 
ARE ALREADY RIGHT OF TRACK...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT 
OR SOUTH OF THE AVN-UKMET CONSENSUS AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE 
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH FLOSSIE BEING 
FORCED WESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE AND 
WELL-DEFINED ANTICYCLONIC GYRE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
 
FLOSSIE REMAINS OVER 27C-28C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND COULD 
STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER... THE 
EXPECTED SLOW MOTION MAY INDUCE SOME COLD UPWELLING BENEATH THE 
CYCLONE...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE. 
LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME VERTICAL SHEAR MAY INCREASE 
OVER FLOSSIE BY 36 TO 48 HR...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH COOLER SSTS... 
A SLOW WEAKENING TREND SHOULD DEVELOP.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY 
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL THROUGH 48 HOURS AND 
THEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN SHIPS AT 72 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/1500Z 20.7N 116.4W    85 KTS
12HR VT     30/0000Z 20.9N 116.8W    90 KTS
24HR VT     30/1200Z 21.3N 117.5W    90 KTS
36HR VT     31/0000Z 21.6N 118.1W    80 KTS
48HR VT     31/1200Z 21.8N 118.9W    70 KTS
72HR VT     01/1200Z 22.0N 120.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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