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HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED AUG 29 2001

FLOSSY IS PRESENTING AN IMPROVED SATELLITE APPEARANCE THIS
MORNING...WITH A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER
AND EVIDENCE OF OUTER BANDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE.  A WARM
SPOT OR RAGGED EYE HAS BEEN COMING AND GOING FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM SAB AND 65 KT FROM
TAFB AND AFWA.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL REMAIN 70 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL 310/5...ALTHOUGH THE LAST FEW IMAGES
SUGGEST THAT A WEST-NORTHWEST WOBBLE MAY BE OCCURRING.  FLOSSIE
IS BETWEEN A LARGE BUT WEAKENING DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST
AND ANOTHER RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.  ADDITIONALLY...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE
STORM.  THIS PATTERN FAVORS A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT SLOW
MOTION...BUT IN WHAT DIRECTION?  NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE...WHILE NOT
AS BADLY SPREAD AS LAST NIGHT...STILL SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE.
THE RIGHT OUTLIER IS THE GFDN...WHICH WANTS TO TAKE THE STORM
NORTHWARD.  THE LEFT OUTLIERS ARE BAMS AND BAMM...WHICH CALL FOR
A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.  GIVEN THAT FLOSSIE STILL SEEMS TO BE ON
OR CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL BE
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH CLIPER...
NHC91...AND THE AVN.  IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE UKMET STARTS WITH A
NORTHWEST MOTION AND THEN TURNS THE STORM WESTWARD.  THIS TRACK
COULD OCCUR IF FLOSSIE WEAKENS FASTER THAN FORECAST OVER COOLER
WATER.
 
FLOSSIE IS STILL OVER 27C-28C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SHOWS
GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THIS AND THE RECENT
INCREASE IN CONVECTION INDICATE THAT SOME STRENGTHENING MAY
OCCUR IN THE SHORT TERM.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT VERTICAL
SHEAR MAY INCREASE OVER FLOSSIE BY 36 TO 48 HR...AND THIS COMBINED
WITH COOLER SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD CHANGE THE
STRENGTHENING TREND TO A WEAKENING TREND.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD AFTER 36 HOURS BASED ON THE FORECAST
OF INCREASED SHEAR.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/0900Z 20.3N 115.6W    70 KTS
12HR VT     29/1800Z 20.6N 116.0W    75 KTS
24HR VT     30/0600Z 21.0N 116.5W    75 KTS
36HR VT     30/1800Z 21.4N 117.0W    75 KTS
48HR VT     31/0600Z 21.8N 117.5W    70 KTS
72HR VT     01/0600Z 22.5N 118.4W    65 KTS
 
 
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