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HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE AUG 28 2001
FLOSSIE HAS BEEN MOVING 310/5 THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...LIKELY IN
RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS WHICH EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM. THE LARGE
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE WHICH HAD BEEN PUSHING FLOSSIE TO THE SOUTHWEST
18-24 HOURS AGO NOW APPEARS TO BE MOVING WEST AND WEAKENING
SLIGHTLY...ALLOWING FOR THE CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS TO EXERT A GREATER
INFLUENCE ON THE STORM MOTION.
THE DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVN AND UKMET MODELS HAVE RESPONDED WITH A
SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE NORTH FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS. ACCORDINGLY...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...BUT IS STILL TO THE LEFT OF ALL THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL
MODELS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY HAS BEEN NOTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND
IN FACT THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A STEADY T4.0
FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA FROM 24 HOURS AGO. INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 70 KT FROM THE LAST ADVISORY.
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TO PEAK THE SYSTEM AT
75 KT IN 12 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS. SOME WEAKENING SHOULD
TAKE PLACE BY 72 HOURS AS FLOSSIE MOVES OVER MARGINAL 26C SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
FORECASTER MOLLEDA/LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/0300Z 19.9N 115.2W 70 KTS
12HR VT 29/1200Z 20.2N 115.6W 75 KTS
24HR VT 30/0000Z 20.5N 116.1W 75 KTS
36HR VT 30/1200Z 20.9N 116.6W 75 KTS
48HR VT 31/0000Z 21.3N 117.0W 75 KTS
72HR VT 01/0000Z 21.9N 117.8W 70 KTS
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