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HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE AUG 28 2001
 
FLOSSIE HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON.  AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 
70 KT IS MAINTAINED BASED ON A BLEND OF A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY 
ESTIMATE OF 65 KT...T4.0...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND A 3-HOUR 
OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY OF 70 KT...ODT4.2...FROM TAFB.  THE EYE 
FEATURE HAS INTERMITTENTLY APPEARED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...BUT 
HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED AND LESS CLOUD-FILLED DURING PAST 
COUPLE OF HOURS. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT 
SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHWEST.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/3.  FLOSSIE HAS BEEN MOVING 
SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THE PAST 6 HOURS...PROBABLY DUE TO AN 
UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAS POSITIONED ITSELF JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF 
FLOSSIE.  THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE AMONG THE VARIOUS 
COMPUTER MODELS FROM THE OUTSET AND RANGE FROM FAST WEST MOTION BY 
THE BAM MODELS TO NORTHEAST MOTION BY NOGAPS AND THE GFDN MODELS. 
THE GFDL TAKES THE CYCLONE DUE NORTH AND CONTINUES TO INSIST ON A 
BAJA LANDFALL AFTER 72 HOURS...WHILE THE UKMET AND AVN TAKE FLOSSIE 
SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS AND THEN WESTWARD 
AFTER THAT.  THE UKMET AND AVN SOLUTIONS APPEAR MORE REASONABLE... 
JUST A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS THE 
LARGE DEEP-LAYERED ANTICYCLONIC GYRE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 
FLOSSIE...WHICH SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM.  THE 
SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT PASSED NEAR FLOSSIE AND IS CURRENTLY 
LOCATED JUST TO ITS SOUTHWEST SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD 
OR SOUTHWARD.  THE RESULT SHOULD BE A RETURN TO A MORE WESTWARD 
MOTION AFTER ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS NORTH OF 
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND SOUTH OF THE UKMET-AVN CONSENSUS.
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS CREATED SOME WEAK 
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ACROSS FLOSSIE TODAY.  HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SMALL UPPER-LOW HAS WEAKENED OR SHEARED 
OUT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO EXPAND AGAIN 
IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER SMALL UPPER-LEVEL 
LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN BAJA THAT APPEARS TO BE ACTING AS A MASS 
SINK FOR THE OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH.  GIVEN THE SMALL BUT IMPRESSIVE 
OUTFLOW PATTERN AND THE FACT THAT FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 
28C SSTS FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SEEMS 
PROBABLE.  BY 48 HOURS...THE SLOW MOTION OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER 
AND POSSIBLE COLD UPWELLING SHOULD HELP TO BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING 
TREND.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/2100Z 19.5N 114.9W    70 KTS
12HR VT     29/0600Z 19.6N 115.2W    75 KTS
24HR VT     29/1800Z 19.9N 115.7W    80 KTS
36HR VT     30/0600Z 20.1N 116.2W    80 KTS
48HR VT     30/1800Z 20.4N 116.8W    75 KTS
72HR VT     31/1800Z 20.5N 118.0W    70 KTS
 
 
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