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HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE AUG 28 2001

AFTER LOOKING LESS ORGANIZED FOR A TIME...FLOSSIE IS MAKING A
COMEBACK WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND THE APPEARANCE OF A WARM
SPOT.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA
ARE 65 KT...SO THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 220/4.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE
MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NORTHWEST OF FLOSSIE WHICH IS LIKELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION.  LARGE-SCALE
MODELS SUGGEST THE ANTICYCLONE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE WESTWARD
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO
THIS SCENARIO BY IMITATING SPOKES ON A WHEEL.  THE NHC 91 MOVES
THE HURRICANE SOUTHWEST...THE UKMET AND BAMS WEST...LBAR AND
BAMM WEST-NORTHWEST THEN NORTH...THE AVN NORTH THEN NORTHWEST...
THE GFDL NORTH...AND THE NOGAPS AND GFDN NORTHEAST.  THIS KIND OF
SPREAD USUALLY MEANS SLOW MOTION...AND THAT IS WHAT THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR.  IN THE SHORT TERM...FLOSSIE SHOULD CONTINUE
SOUTHWESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE.  THIS
SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS.  THIS FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF...THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. 
 
FLOSSIE IS NEAR THE EDGE OF THE WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SO
THE INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK.  THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR FLOSSIE TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER FOR
36 TO 48 HR...AND THUS CALLS FOR STRENGHTENING IN A FORECASTED
LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  HOWEVER...ANY QUICKER NORTHWARD MOTION
WOULD MEAN A WEAKER FLOSSIE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0900Z 19.0N 114.5W    65 KTS
12HR VT     28/1800Z 18.7N 114.9W    70 KTS
24HR VT     29/0600Z 18.5N 115.7W    75 KTS
36HR VT     29/1800Z 18.5N 116.5W    80 KTS
48HR VT     30/0600Z 18.5N 117.1W    85 KTS
72HR VT     31/0600Z 19.0N 118.0W    80 KTS
 
 
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