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TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON AUG 27 2001
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT FLOSSIE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  
THERE IS GOOD UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW...EXCEPT TO THE NORTHEAST 
AND EAST.  LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB GIVE 
45 KNOTS.  ASIDE FROM A LITTLE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...THE 
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.  THE 
OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THAT 
FROM THE SHIPS MODEL.  IF THIS VERIFIES FLOSSIE WOULD BECOME THE 
FIRST EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE IN ABOUT A MONTH...AN UNUSUAL PERIOD OF 
INACTIVITY.

MOTION IS MAINLY WESTWARD...270/9.  TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE 
CONFLICTING.  HOWEVER THE U.K. MET AND NOGAPS MODELS HAVE SHIFTED 
WESTWARD FROM THEIR PREVIOUS FORECASTS...LEAVING THE GFDL AS THE 
OUTLIER IN SHOWING A MOTION TOWARD BAJA.  FLOSSIE APPEARS TO BE 
EMBEDDED IN A BROAD LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE...WHICH IN TURN 
IS SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF A PRONOUNCED RIDGE.  THE AVIATION MODEL 
INDICATES THAT THE GYRE WILL MOVE WESTWARD...WHICH SHOULD TAKE THE 
TROPICAL STORM WITH IT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS 
IDEA...AND SLOWS THE FORWARD SPEED LATER IN THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE 
TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0900Z 20.0N 113.0W    45 KTS
12HR VT     27/1800Z 20.0N 114.0W    50 KTS
24HR VT     28/0600Z 20.0N 115.0W    55 KTS
36HR VT     28/1800Z 20.0N 116.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     29/0600Z 20.0N 116.5W    65 KTS
72HR VT     30/0600Z 20.0N 117.5W    65 KTS
 
 
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