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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED AUG 22 2001
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR 
136W HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  THERE IS A GOOD LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION EVIDENT IN THE LOW CLOUDS...WITH RAGGED DEEP CONVECTION 
NEAR THE CENTER.  THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS BEING NUMBERED AT THIS 
TIME.  LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AS THE CYCLONE IS NOW CROSSING 
THE 25C SST ISOTHERM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE DISSIPATING OVER 
COOLER WATERS IN A DAY OR TWO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NNW NEAR 11 KT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH 
JUST WEST OF 140W.  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GENERALLY 
NORTHWARD MOTION AT 10-15 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MAINLY A BLEND OF MEDIUM TO SHALLOW LAYER BAM 
STEERING.
  
FORECASTER AVILA/PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/2100Z 18.9N 136.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     23/0600Z 20.3N 137.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     23/1800Z 22.3N 137.5W    25 KTS
36HR VT     24/0600Z 25.0N 137.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     24/1800Z 28.0N 137.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
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