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TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT JUL 28 2001
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/08.  GUIDANCE MODELS INDICATE A 
WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...FROM 
THE LOW LEVEL STEERING OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THE 
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS NO DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW 
LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL.  A 0226Z QUIKSCAT PASS WITH LITTLE RAIN 
CONTAMINATION SHOWED NO WIND SPEEDS HIGHER THAT 25 KTS WHILE DVORAK 
INTENSITIES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE STILL 35 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND 
SPEED IS DECREASED TO 30 KNOTS.  WITH COOL SSTS...ALL GUIDANCE 
SUGGESTS DISSIPATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0900Z 22.2N 120.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     28/1800Z 22.7N 121.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     29/0600Z 22.7N 123.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     29/1800Z 22.7N 124.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     30/0600Z...DISSIPATING
  
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