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TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT JUL 28 2001
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/08. GUIDANCE MODELS INDICATE A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...FROM
THE LOW LEVEL STEERING OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS NO DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL. A 0226Z QUIKSCAT PASS WITH LITTLE RAIN
CONTAMINATION SHOWED NO WIND SPEEDS HIGHER THAT 25 KTS WHILE DVORAK
INTENSITIES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE STILL 35 KNOTS. THE OFFICIAL WIND
SPEED IS DECREASED TO 30 KNOTS. WITH COOL SSTS...ALL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS DISSIPATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/0900Z 22.2N 120.2W 30 KTS
12HR VT 28/1800Z 22.7N 121.5W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 29/0600Z 22.7N 123.0W 20 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 29/1800Z 22.7N 124.0W 20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 30/0600Z...DISSIPATING
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