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TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI JUL 27 2001
 
THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON INFRARED IMAGERY.  THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCHANGED AT 285/08 AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SHOWS A WEST-NORTHWEST TO
WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOUR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KNOTS FROM TAFB AND SAB AND 55 KNOTS
FROM KGWC.  HOWEVER MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
REDUCED TO 50 KNOTS.  NEAR BY SSTS ARE ABOUT 25 DEGREES C AND
THE FORECAST TRACK IS OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER.  BASED ON
THIS...THE WIND SPEED FORECAST IS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING...SIMILAR
TO THE SHIPS MODEL.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0900Z 20.2N 116.9W    50 KTS
12HR VT     27/1800Z 20.5N 118.1W    45 KTS
24HR VT     28/0600Z 20.9N 119.9W    40 KTS
36HR VT     28/1800Z 21.2N 121.1W    35 KTS
48HR VT     29/0600Z 21.5N 122.5W    30 KTS
72HR VT     30/0600Z 21.5N 124.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
  
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