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TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI JUL 27 2001
THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON INFRARED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCHANGED AT 285/08 AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SHOWS A WEST-NORTHWEST TO
WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOUR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KNOTS FROM TAFB AND SAB AND 55 KNOTS
FROM KGWC. HOWEVER MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
REDUCED TO 50 KNOTS. NEAR BY SSTS ARE ABOUT 25 DEGREES C AND
THE FORECAST TRACK IS OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER. BASED ON
THIS...THE WIND SPEED FORECAST IS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING...SIMILAR
TO THE SHIPS MODEL.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/0900Z 20.2N 116.9W 50 KTS
12HR VT 27/1800Z 20.5N 118.1W 45 KTS
24HR VT 28/0600Z 20.9N 119.9W 40 KTS
36HR VT 28/1800Z 21.2N 121.1W 35 KTS
48HR VT 29/0600Z 21.5N 122.5W 30 KTS
72HR VT 30/0600Z 21.5N 124.5W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING
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